After the first round of the TOUR Championship at East Lake Golf Club, Russell Henley is showing that if he keeps putting like this, he might just be days away from lifting the FedExCup trophy.
Henley was on fire, sinking an impressive 207 feet of putts—the most he’s ever made in a single round on the TOUR. The 9-under 61 score was capped by birdies on each of the final three holes, giving him a two-shot lead heading into round two of the 30-man event.
His odds to win have dramatically improved, dropping from +2700 at FanDuel Sportsbook to +450 after his stellar start. Still, World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, who posted a 7-under 63 to sit two shots behind, remains the favorite at +105.
Top Updated Odds to Win (FanDuel):
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Scottie Scheffler: +105
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Russell Henley: +450
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Tommy Fleetwood: +1100
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Rory McIlroy: +1400
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Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas: +1600
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Collin Morikawa: +2000
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Robert MacIntyre: +2200
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Ludvig Åberg: +2700
While Henley’s lead is impressive, it’s not insurmountable—especially with Scheffler hot on his heels. It’s unlikely Henley will continue to gain more than five strokes on the field with his putting alone. Scheffler ended the round bogey-free, birdieing his last two holes, and his odds continue to shorten.
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Among the top contenders are former FedExCup champions Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, and Patrick Cantlay, plus Tommy Fleetwood, who is still searching for his first TOUR victory. Of the 30 players, only nine have odds better than +6500, setting the stage for an intense weekend.
Betting Picks for Round 2
Justin Thomas to Win (+1600)
Thomas remains a strong contender. He putted exceptionally well, second only to Henley, despite a costly double bogey on the short 16th hole. The former FedExCup champ posted a 6-under 64 and is tied for third place in a packed leaderboard. With five top-five finishes at East Lake and a lifetime scoring average of 67.81, Thomas is poised to capitalize on any mistakes from the leaders. His price looks very appealing with Scheffler’s odds nearing even money.
Ben Griffin Top 5 Finish (+450)
Griffin started solidly with a 4-under 66, putting him five shots off the lead and tied for eighth. His round was steady and well-rounded, gaining strokes in three out of four major categories. With Ryder Cup ambitions in mind and strong recent form—finishing T12 or better in his last three starts—Griffin is a smart pick to finish in the top five.
Rory McIlroy Under 67.5 in Round 2 (-140)
Backing McIlroy for a sub-67.5 round is a tempting play. After a dramatic birdie on the 18th—thanks to a lucky bounce off the grandstand—McIlroy closed with a 4-under 66. His strong tee-to-green game (third in SG: Off-the-Tee, fifth in SG: Approach) shows he’s ready to attack a course that’s expected to be softened by overnight rain. Expect him to shoot 67 or better and stay in contention.
