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Reading: Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano: Prediction, Head-to-Head, and Probable Lineup
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Sportsmacro > Predictions > Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano: Prediction, Head-to-Head, and Probable Lineup
Predictions

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano: Prediction, Head-to-Head, and Probable Lineup

Last updated: March 9, 2025 12:21 pm
By Gabriel Anderson - Sportsmacro reporter 4 Min Read
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Match Overview

On Sunday, March 9, at 16:15 CET, Real Madrid will welcome Rayo Vallecano to the Santiago Bernabéu for a La Liga clash in the 27th round. With both teams chasing crucial points—Real in the title race and Rayo aiming for European qualification—this promises to be a competitive encounter.

Contents
Match OverviewReal Madrid’s Recent FormRayo Vallecano’s Recent FormHead-to-Head & Match FactsKey Player to WatchProbable LineupsMatch Prediction

Real Madrid’s Recent Form

Los Blancos remain firmly in the hunt for the La Liga title, though they have temporarily slipped to third place with 54 points, trailing Barcelona by three and Atlético Madrid by two. They have scored 55 goals while conceding 25.

Real Madrid secured a 2-1 win over Atlético in the first leg of their Champions League round of 16 tie, but with the return fixture approaching, Carlo Ancelotti may opt for squad rotation. After their recent league defeat to Betis, dropping points again could be costly in the title race.

At home, Real has been dominant, remaining unbeaten in six consecutive league matches. However, Rayo Vallecano has proven to be a stubborn opponent in recent meetings.

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Rayo Vallecano’s Recent Form

Rayo sits seventh in La Liga with 36 points, just two behind Real Betis in the race for a European spot. However, their recent league form has been shaky, with three winless matches in a row—narrow defeats to Barcelona (0-1) and Villarreal (0-1), along with a 1-1 draw against Sevilla.

Injuries have also hit the squad, with key forwards Sergio Camello and Isi Palazón sidelined, further weakening an attack that has struggled for goals.

Despite this, Rayo has caused Real problems in past meetings. Their last encounter ended in a thrilling 3-3 draw, and the last three fixtures between these sides have all been stalemates.

Head-to-Head & Match Facts

  • Rayo Vallecano has failed to win in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Real Madrid has won 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Real has won 5 of their last 6 home games.
  • Real has scored first in each of their last 6 matches.
  • Real is unbeaten in 6 of their last 7 head-to-head encounters.
  • 8 of Rayo’s last 9 matches have featured fewer than 3.5 goals.
  • 7 of the last 9 meetings between these sides have seen fewer than 3.5 goals scored.

Key Player to Watch

Brahim Díaz has been in outstanding form, netting crucial goals against Betis, Atlético, and Manchester City. Despite being a rotational player, his tally of 6 goals and 6 assists this season highlights his growing importance in Real Madrid’s attack.

Probable Lineups

Real Madrid: Courtois – Asensio, Tchouaméni, García, Mendy – Vázquez, Camavinga, Bellingham – Díaz, Vinícius, Mbappé
Rayo Vallecano: Batalla – Lejeune, Ratiu, Chavarría, Mumin – Ciss, Díaz, De Frutos – García, Nteka, Trejo

Match Prediction

Rayo Vallecano has historically been a tricky opponent for Real Madrid, and with Ancelotti’s side likely managing fatigue from their European commitments, this could be another tight contest. Expect Rayo to adopt a defensive approach while Real plays pragmatically, aiming to secure the win with minimal exertion.

Prediction: Under 3.5 total goals (odds: 1.59).

TAGGED:La Liga
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