The second semifinal of the 2024/25 UEFA Nations League will be a heavyweight showdown as Spain and France meet on Thursday at the MHP Arena in Stuttgart. With a place in the final on the line, this promises to be a tightly contested clash between two European giants. Here’s where the value lies in the betting markets.
Match Preview
Spain enters the semifinal as arguably the most consistent side of the tournament. Under Luis de la Fuente, La Furia Roja have been disciplined, cohesive, and defensively solid, conceding just four goals in the group stage. Their dramatic quarterfinal victory over the Netherlands (via penalties) highlighted their composure under pressure and showcased the growing maturity of their young stars.
The likes of Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal have added dynamism to Spain’s attack, while the team has been excellent at setting the tempo—scoring first in each of their last seven Nations League games. Even without key players like Rodri, Carvajal, and Ferran Torres, Spain’s squad depth and tactical clarity have kept their form intact. Notably, Spain is unbeaten in regulation time in their last 23 official matches.
France, while always dangerous, arrive with less convincing form. After navigating a tough group and scraping through the quarterfinals against Croatia on penalties, Didier Deschamps’ side still has questions to answer. Their last 10 official matches have included three defeats, and they fell to Spain in the Euro 2024 semifinals—adding an extra psychological layer to this encounter.
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France’s second-half resilience has been notable—they haven’t conceded after halftime in any of their last seven Nations League fixtures. However, the absences of Griezmann, Camavinga, and Koundé could hurt, especially as newer faces like Barcola and Olise continue to adapt.
Match Facts & Head-to-Head
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Spain are unbeaten in regulation time in their last 11 Nations League matches.
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France has only one win in their last five official meetings with Spain.
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The Over 2.5 goals bet has landed in just 2 of the last 5 matchups between these two sides.
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Spain has reached the Nations League final in both of their previous semifinal appearances.
Probable Lineups
Spain: Unai Simón – Cucurella, CubarsÃ, Le Normand, Porro – Fabián Ruiz, Zubimendi, Pedri – Morata, Nico Williams, Lamine Yamal
France: Maignan – Théo Hernandez, Konaté, Pavard, Gusto – Olise, Koné, Tchouaméni – Dembélé, Mbappé, Barcola
Prediction & Value Bet
Expect a tactical and physical battle in Stuttgart, but it’s Spain who look better positioned. Their balance, form, and chemistry—particularly in high-pressure games—stand out. France remains dangerous but appears less settled, and their defensive vulnerabilities could be exploited by Spain’s pace and positional rotations.
Recommended Bet: Spain (0) Handicap
Odds: 1.80
This Asian handicap bet offers safety in case of a draw (stake returned), with strong value if Spain edges the match in regulation.
